The poll I chose to look at was the 2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination Poll from RealClearPolitics.com. Based on Martin O'Malley's exclusion from MANY polls I looked at, and his lack of a strong presence in this poll, I think it is pretty clear what story is being told; Martin O'Malley is not looking like the democratic front runner. Hey, at least he's not dead last, right?! At this point, it is pretty clear that that Martin O'Malley is still in the shadows of the three Democratic candidates. It would appear in this poll that O'Malley has a very big mountain to climb. We are talking Mount Everest. The good news is we still have time, as we are still more than a year out from the election.
The main thing I think we can learn from polls done over a year before the election is that they can, and sometimes do shape outcomes AND that they can change! Although it is definitely arguable that these poll results are "true" or that they hold much weight, you can not deny that poll results such as these shape the conversation. That can be good or bad. If I as a voter, I knew O'Malley was my candidate of choice and I saw these poll results, I may begin to panic. When you look at poll results and 100% believe them, you would read this and think "There is no hope for O'Malley. I need to start researching a different candidate that has more potential to win that I can still agree with." As a voter, you want a candidate that can most accurately represent you and your beliefs. If you know your candidate of choice is not going to be a front runner, you might shift who you plan to vote for since you still want your candidate to represent you and your beliefs most accurately. I think that is the most influential way polls can shape outcome. As the book states, "America is rightly guided by its polls," (Larry Powell, 184). I would definitely agree with that. It can almost turn into a self fulling prophecy in that sense. The second most important factor in polling this far out is that A TON can happen in a year. Candidates responses and behaviors to things that happen in the future can definitely sway voters opinions of them. And even then, people can vote differently than how the responded in a poll. Only time will tell!
On an unrelated note, I promised in one of prior blogs to update you on O'Malley's snapchat presence once he started posting things...THE TIME HAS COME. Here is what O'Malley's snapchat has looked like lately:
Working out and prepping for a debate? OK!!
Admit it, you laughed... "Just chillin' in Cedar Rapids!"
McKinlea,
ReplyDeleteI really enjoyed reading you blog post. I thought it was funny and gave good information about the polls and O'Malley. I think it is great you added the snapchat photos to keep people interested wanting to read you next blog. And I do agree with you that what polls tell us now can change when it is time for election. I feel like this is the main thing people need to keep in mind. So what do you think O'Malley is going to do to rise in the polls and keep himself in the race?
I agree with your post in the way that polls made a year before election can change. I also like what you suggested: find a candidate who most closely represents your political views if your "first choice" is way behind in the race. Also, I enjoy the gym picture of O'Malley, simply because he is not wearing a suit and tie.
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